Stochastic State Space Modeling


- Formulated grey-box RC-network state-space models of the building envelope's thermal dynamics, with air temperatures as boundary inputs and wall temperatures as observed states, keeping the lumped-parameter structure physically interpretable while capturing the dominant heat-transfer behavior.
- Instrumented the envelope with four DS18B20 1-Wire sensors logging to a Raspberry Pi, producing a clean, 30-day passively-excited temperature dataset as the basis for system identification.
- Transposed horizontal solar irradiance onto the wall plane using solar geometry (sun position, angle of incidence), correcting for the mismatch between the horizontal sensor and the vertical building envelope.
- Identified the grey-box wall model via maximum-likelihood estimation in continuous-time stochastic modeling (CTSM), comparing RC networks of increasing order by residual autocorrelation (whiteness) diagnostics.
- Currently benchmarking against a graded lineup, persistence and static-linear baselines, a linear black-box state-space model, and learned architectures (LSTM, S4), so that held-out multi-step prediction error attributes to a single modeling ingredient at each rung.







